Why Horses Win Races
Despite the fact that there are many, many different reasons why horses win races, it is indeed possible to make money by wagering on thoroughbreds.
We can cash on value plays by locating (through scanning the past performance listings = p.p.'s) "nuggets", or indicators of potential for strong next-out performance that the majority of handicappers don't recognize as important clues.
Since the advent of speed figures, the focus of handicapping has been on these magical, mystical numbers, the best of which in reality account for only about 30% of winners of thoroughbred races.
That leaves a lot of room for locating value plays.
And the one major flaw in speed figures is that they measure basically one thing; final time - how fast a horse ran, the number including a variant for the race.
What they cannot reveal are key moves and gains horses make during specific parts of a race that can set them up for next-out readiness.
There are many winners that have what can be considered inferior recent speed figures because they finished 4, 5, 6 or more lengths behind the winner in their last or last few races.
But nearly every day at every track there are winning horses that displayed recent gains, moves, even finishes, or other indicators that were ignored by the betting public.
I’ll be getting into more and more of what makes horses win races in future articles, but for now let me say that there are two criteria that need to be present front and center in a contender that is worth wagering on, those being edge and value.
Contenders that are obvious to nearly everyone will on many occasions present an edge over the competition.
But value will often be another story.
That important prerequisite is missing much of the time.
We don’t need to be risking money on horses that pay less than a fair price.
So making money on the thoroughbreds entails a bit more than looking for the obvious.
It takes some good old hard work; not necessarily a lot of time, but some digging into the p.p.’s to unearth reasons horses may be ready to fire their best shot in a particular match up.
Recognizing the existence of match ups is one of the keys to success in this money-making venture.
Each field of horses that load into the starting gate is a different and unique match up.
Because of running styles, post positions, current form, distance of race, and a number of other factors that cause match ups to favor one or more runners over the rest of the field.
Much of which I will be discussing in future articles, so stay tuned.
Wishing you Clear Skies and Fast Tracks,