There are certain on-track maneuvers that horses can make in one or more of their last 3 races, and I refer to these as"moves-within-a-race."
2001 Kentucky Derby Winner Monarchos tipped his hand asone very solid racehorse by making more than one of thesemaneuvers in his
3-year-old campaign leading up to his bigwin on May 5th in Louieville.
The first such tipoff was in his first race of 2001 when he became a winner in his 3rd try lifetime. And boy was it a move.
It was also a maneuver that I would guestimate was totallyignored by 99% of all who saw his past performance lines that led up to his win in the Grade 1 Florida Derby and his runaway victory in the biggest race of them all, The Kentucky Derby.
The great move made by Monarchos was in the final furlong of that graduation race on January 13, 2001 and was in essence completely "invisible" to all but a few.
I have par times for all distances run by thoroughbreds.Some par times are much more difficult to achieve thanothers. For instance, it's quite a bit easier to run the last 8th of a mile in 12 seconds at a mile and an 8thon the turf than it is at 7 furlongs on the dirt.
And of course, part of the equation of being labeleda "super" move is that the race must have been run in verygood time, which for 7F is 1:22.
Keep an eye out for horses that approach a 12 secondfinal furlong in 7F races. They may very well be indicatinggood things to come down the road.
Here are the splits for Monarchos in his 7F win and sincehe was in front at the pace call - after 4F had been run -the raw final fractions were also his final fractions.
22.2 45.2 1:10.1 1:22.1
When he drew off and extended his lead by 3 lengths inthe last 8th while winning by 6, he also registered a fantastic 12 seconds flat for that final furlong. This very sharp move, coupled with another in his next race (4th quarter fraction) made him a standout in the Florida Derby, which he won by 4 1/2 lengths.
That's the race in which Monarchos was 5-2 as he was loaded into the gate and wound up paying $4.80 (7-5). A big bettorusing sophisticated software that could make last secondwagers for him put over $200,000 on his nose as the horses wereloading and drastically cut the winning payoff from $7.00 to $4.80. I would have to guess that this guy knew about the "moves" this horse had been making in his previous couple ofraces.
And the eye-popping move he made in the Florda Derby,coupled with his previous 2 "moves-within-a-race" madehim a strong contender for the Kentucky Derby.
In his final prep for the Kentucky Derby, The WoodMemorial run at Aqueduct 3 weeks before, his trainer letit be known that he was pointing for the big race on May 5th and as a result used the Wood to simply gain someground late in preparation for the big race.
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