Internal Fractions Comparison

Here is a reprint of a race analysis I included with the free picks I put up on this website Friday July 13, 2001.

It is a demonstration of how internal fractionscomparison can unveil a clear cut top contender, inthis case a 6-1 top pick.

To find out more about internal fractions comparison as well as the other top indicators of strong next-out performance, you may want to test drivemy new book, "Calibration Handicapping."To do so, please click on the link at the bottom of this article.

Nearly every day at every track there are situations like the following in which the public is backing the wrong horse for the win because theyknow nothing about internal fractions comparisonand the gems that can be uncovered, such as TheKarakorum Kid in race #1 at Belmont Park on Fridaythe 13th.

Here is the beginning of my analysis that day,including the breakdown of the 3 races the 3 maincontenders were exiting.


To win at this game really boils down to keeping things simple. Play races that present value and pass races that don't. Simple, like manythings, but not always easy.

On the Friday the 13th Twilight card at Belmont Park, I'll be looking at the races listed below and playing those that present enough value to justify the risk.

Race 1 - Post 3:05 EDT

9. The Karakorum Kid (5-1) (5-2)
2. Stevie Bubbles (8-5) (2-1)
5. Ambitious Pro (9-2) (3-1)

This Maiden Special Weight 6F sprint is an interesting match up of last-out races. #9 The Karakorum Kid and #2 Stevie Bubbles ran in split divisions on the same day, June 23rd at Belmont, while #5 Ambitious Pro last ran on May 18th also at Belmont.

Here is the match up of splits of these 3 races, listed in post position order of the horsesthat are exiting them...2, 5, and 9, and I'll include the track variants after them.

22.4   46.1   58.1   110.4     13

22.1   46.0   58.3   112.0     17

22.2   45.4   57.3   109.4     13

It's pretty apparent to me which of these races has the best splits...the last one, in which#9 The Karakorum Kid competed. Let's take a quicklook at the "raw" INTERNAL fractions...fractions that need to be calculated.

I'll calculate the turn time or 2nd quarter,then the 5th furlong, followed by the 6th furlong and the combination of both of the last 2, the final quarter, or final fraction. Again, these arethe "raw" internal fractions or those calculated from the fractions recorded by the leader(s) at each point of call.

The "raw" turn time or 2nd quarter for the 1stexample, the race #2 is exiting, is figured by subtracting 22.4 from 46.1. For the "raw" 5th furlong we subtract 46.1 from 58.1. For the "raw"6th furlong or final 8th we subtract 58.1 from 110.4 and for the "raw" final quarter we subtract 46.1 from 110.4 and as I said, the resultant 5th and 6th fractions will when added together equal the 3rd quarter or what I refer to as the final fraction in sprints.

Here are the internal fractions of each of the3 races, again going in post position order of the horses that are exiting them:

2nd quarter: 23.2, 23.4, and 23.2

5th furlong: 12.0, 12.3, and 11.4

6th furlong: 12.3, 13.2, and 12.1

3rd quarter: 24.3, 26.0, and 24.0

The actual final quarters or final fractions of #'s 2, 5 and 9, which include beaten lengths, are:

25.3, 26.0, and 25.4.

#9 The Karakorum Kid is obviously exiting the best race of the three illustrated. The "raw"fractions showing as well as the "raw" internal fractions are best right down the line.

And since all three of the horses in question finished 2nd and were either on or within a length of the lead at the pace call, which is the top of the stretch, he becomes my automatic #1 selection over the others.

I'll play #9 The Karakorum Kid to win and key him top and bottom in exactas with the other 2.


The Karakorum Kid won this race by about 3 lengths and paid $15.60 with the 3-5 shot favorite Stevie Bubbles running 2nd bringing in a cold exacta of $30.00.

Those who compare internal fractions knew thiswas an "overlay" situation and that the public wasbacking the wrong horse in the win slot.

To get a copy of "Calibration Handicapping"and begin to uncover plays like The Karakorum Kidat your track, please go to the order page and choose from the 3 options by Clicking Here.

Regards,

Jim




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