December '99 Archived Newsletters
Horseracing Handicappers' Free Picks Newsletter Sunday, December 5, 1999
Sunday's edition of this newsletter is normally just selections. But I received an email from Hap on Saturday and I figured I would answer it here.
Here is part of Hap's email: "I really am enjoying your newsletters. I told (someone) in a comment about your self criticism that "such honesty is refreshing in this age of cynicism." Also, your discussion about searching for value bets is an area little touched upon by most pros. How to Make Wagers 101, is not taught in any college or university that I know of. Too bad! In my own case, I am sadly lacking in the ability to construct bets. This keeps me from playing the pick 3 and making place parlays and other value exotics because I really don't know how and have nobody to show me."
The best thing I can think of to address Hap's self-admitted lack of ability to construct bets is to go over how I played the picks I had posted yesterday, Saturday. Like I've said in the past, the wagering process is just about as important as the handicapping process. I'm sure there is a wide range of expertise in the subscriber base I have in this forum. I know of a few who are good enough to be in the black at the end of the year. I know also, that there are total beginners to this game who know very little about any of it and are in the learning process. And of course there are hundreds somewhere in the middle.
Following is a reprint of Saturday's picks as listed in this newsletter:
7. Slash Cottage (5-1) (5-2) Slight drop off 2 strong mile races
6. Your So Fine (12-1) (5-1) Wide Out likes this surface
5. Jaye's Hope (6-1) (6-1) Wide Out 2 races in row; now or never
2. Dolfmeister (4-1) (5-2) Near-Profile had trouble in stretch
4. Lambourne (5-2) (2-1) Finishes 2nd 4 times as often as 1st
7. Star Plot (12-1)(10-1) Needs fast pace; may get a piece
5. Away (7-5) (1-1) Pick 3 single?
2. Katz Me If You Can (9-5) (2-1) Working well for return
8. Sense of Duty (6-1) (3-1) Profile/Wide Out likes distance
9. Aristotle (5-2) (5-2) Exits big race in slop
3. Ordained (4-1) (7-2) 1 win and 4 2nds last 5 on dry dirt
5. Crab Grass (7-2) (3-1) Profile/Wide Out looks good if she goes
1. Common Objective (4-1) (5-2) Profile/Wide Out tries to begin new streak
4. Pentelis (15-1) (7-1) 24.2 final quarter makes her a contender
2. Sir Smooth (7-2) (5-2) Profile/Wide Out moves inside; better shot
3. Final Choice (3-1) (2-1) Beat top choice with 24 flat final qtr.
8. Double Screen (9-2) (3-1) Drops to his competitive level
5. Ranei (20-1)(12-1) Longshot Profile stumbled in last
8. Casino Kid (10-1) (5-1) Profile/Wide Out play likes Calder
7. Don'tcallmeacowboy (5-2) (5-2) Latest was a strong wire job
4. Gold Searcher (3-1) (2-1) 3 good one's in a row 3
Here are the wagers I constructed for these 7 races:
With the late scratch of my top choice, #7 Slash Cottage, I was left with 2 picks, #6, Your So Fine and #5 Jaye's Hope. I listed #6 over #5 because I liked her better due to her moving in from the 9-hole and also because of her two consecutive wins on the inner track last year. When I saw the odds, I had to wager to win on #6 and I also boxed an exacta of 5-6. The 6 won at $18.20 and the 5 ran 4th so I made a nice profit on the win bet and lost the exacta.
Since my top pick, #2 was around 5-2 and I wasn't that thrilled about the value in this race, I passed. #2 ran 2nd.
From the gitgo I intended to use this race as the start of the late pick 3. I played that wager like this: 2-5/3-8-9/1-4-5. The cost of this wager for $2 is $36 and the payoff of 2-9-4 was $293. A $1 wager cost $18 and the return was $146.50. I also then put in more with the 5 horse in race 6, but she ran second to the runaway #2. In other words, I used every single horse I had listed in the late pick 3, and luckily hit it.
In this race, I went with a win bet on the Profile/Wide Out #8 and then I put in an exacta box of 3-8-9, for which a $2 bet costs $12. Again, if you downloaded that free exotic wager calculator I mentioned in Saturday's issue you can see what the cost is of just about any wager. I then used my top 2 picks, 8 and 9 in a much heavier box exacta, for which a $2 bet costs $4. The exacta of 9-8 paid 22.40.
Since I liked the second half of the Daily Double, I decided to stress that wager more than the exactas in race 8. I played the following late D/D's: 1-4-5/2-3-8, for which a $2 bet costs $18. Since I liked the first two listed horses the best in race 9, I also played this double: 1-4-5/2-3, for which a $2 bet costs $12. I then played an exacta box in race 8 of 1-4-5. The exacta lost, but I was alive in the doubles with 3 horses in the 9th when Pentelis drew off in deep stretch and paid $48.20. I also hit the pick 3 for $293.
I decided to not make any wagers in this race since I was alive with my top three choices in the D/D and they would pay the following: 4-2 $268.50, 4-3 $211.50 and 4-8 $283.50. The favorite, #3 won the race paying $8.50 with the 8 running second. The exacta paid $32.00 and I finished a real nice day with the $211.50 late D/D.
I went with a win bet on the Profile/Wide Out play, #8 but he disappointed and ran out of the money. I also played exacta boxes with him and the other two picks, #'s 4 and 7.
I hope this helps somewhat, but know that for all of us it takes some time and practice to become a good bettor.
Clear skies and fast tracks.
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