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In today's "September Nuggets" newsletter I will point out and review clues to edge
and value that were present in two races run on Sunday August 22, 2004.
Race 8 at Saratoga on 8/22/04 was a 1 mile test on the Inner turf course at the preliminary
allowance level (NW1X).
After late scratches of 1A, 2, 2B, 11, 12 and 13 there was a field of 10 slated to go.
It's widely agreed that for turf races the most significant indicator of potential for strong
next-out performance is "come home time" or as I refer to it "final fraction."
This review race is a fine example of how internal fraction calculation and comparison
can be time very well spent.
And if you don't have the time or are not particularly enthusiastic about working with fractions,
you can have all that work done for you (while at the same time receiving a whole lot more
"nugget"-locating data) by checking out my new C.H. Data Report
You can view and/or print the p.p.'s for today's first review race by clicking
And the results chart is here.
Here is the field of 10 with running style, last-out Beyer speed figure, raw/actual final
fractions, and any Calibration Handicapping "moves-within-a-race." For more info please click
1. Go Robin EP 76 24.3/24.0 ---
4. Twining and Dining S 76 25.0/24.4 ---
5. What to Wear E 89 25.4/25.4 ---
6. Muguet EP 61 26.2/27.2 ---
7. Vallonga ? Ran both career races in Germany in '02
8. Strategy P 85 25.1/24.3 ---
9. Meadow Belle E 47 25.3/27.2 ---
3. Tigi P 76 25.2/25.2 T/M play but Stale
3C. Lure of Gold EP 38 24.2/26.1 ---
10. Winlocs Glory Days E 81 24.3/24.3
The move up in class from maiden special weight to NW1X allowance for #1 Go Robin was logical
and not too steep, especially for a filly that won for fun (by 4 lengths) in her very first
try on turf while also leading in all internal fraction categories (including the C.H. data
I38 that measures fractional times from the beginning of the final turn to the 8th pole).
With her morning line/final odds of 4-1/6-1, she was the top contender in this match up
despite facing winners for the first time.
#4 Twining and Dining - one of 5 stale horses making their returns in this heat,
four of them ultimately finishing 7th through 10th with the other getting 4th money, this
deep closer needed a race or two before she could be considered a viable contender.
#5 What to Wear - her last was a maiden breaker also, but it was her 3rd try on grass and
5th lifetime with lesser internal splits than the top 2 contenders; could have been used
underneath in exotics.
#6 Muguet - away 195 days from a non-inspiring 2nd career outing after a 4-month layoff
(2 breaks from racing indicating potential for some kind of physical ailment) she like the
other stale fillies did not figure as an on the board prospect.
#7 Vallonga - her 2 career races were in Germany and having not raced since 10/3/02, she
was a non-contender (as what turned out to be the 2nd choice in the wagering at 3-1).
#8 Strategy - never having run on grass made her a question mark, but off her last-out show
finish she could have been included for 2nd or 3rd in exacta and/or trifecta wagering.
#9 Meadow Belle - other than regularly flashing early speed, with a career slate of 20/1-3-3
despite the lone win coming on grass she did not have recent form that would suggest a top
effort was on the horizon.
#3 Tigi - her last was a 12/27/03 2nd place finish on the Aqueduct Inner Dirt track, having
not shown much in either of her 2 career turf races last August and September.
3C - Lure of Gold - stale like her entry mate, and had a series of 3 dull races prior to
#10 Winlocs Glory Days - clearly displaying the second-best last-out internal fractions in
this match up, she was a top 2 contender cutting back from missing by 3 lengths in her
last at a mile and one-quarter and having graduated at a mile and one-eighth on turf in
The contenders were in order with morning line/final odds:
#1 Go Robin 4-1/6-1
#10 Winlocs Glory Days 12-1/5-1
#5 What to Wear 8-1/5-1
#8 Strategy 3-1/5-2
Because of her across the board top ranking in the critical internal fraction categories
(and breaking from the rail vs. the 10-hole for Winlocs Glory Days), #1 Go Robin was
the logical win bet with exotic plays if opted for constructed something along these lines:
Ex.: largest play on 1-10 box, straight 1-10, p/w 1-10/1-5-8-10, p/w 1/5-8-10
Tri.: p/w 1-10/1-5-8-10/1-5-8-10, 1/5-8-10/5-8-10
The payoffs were:
1-10 Ex. $81.50
1-10-9 Tri. $1,953.00
Go Robin lived up to her expectations with a length and one-half score over Winlocs Glory Days,
whom she caught inside the furlong marker.
The logical exacta as pointed out by C.H. data clicked at a nice price.
Trifecta plays went down as speed horse Meadow Belle hung in gamely for the show at odds
of nearly 50-1.
About one-half hour before Race 8 at Saratoga the eighth at Monmouth Park was
contested by a field of 6 three year old fillies going 6F in the Ms Woodford $60K un graded
You can view and/or print the p.p.'s for today's second review race by clicking
And the results chart is here.
Here was the field:
1. Slewville EP 55 26.0/27.0 ---
2. Absolute Nectar E 85 25.4/25.3 Profile play
3. Then She Laughs EP 79 25.4/25.3 T/M play
4. Humor Me Molly EP 47 26.0/26.2 ---
5. Frenchglen E 72 27.0/28.0 ---
6. Forty Moves P 84 25.0/24.3 T/M play
Obviously the last outing does not always tell the whole story with regard to fully
handicapping a particular match up.
Let's take a closer look at each of these 6 fillies.
#1 Slewville - her last-out RFF/AFF figures did not measure up to some others in here, and
calculating her prior stats (27.0/26.3) revealed that in spite of winning an $85K race at
Arlington Park going a 1-turn mile she seemed overmatched in this spot.
#2 Absolute Nectar - she had run 3 races on the grass before her last-out good 3rd place
finish in an off-the-turf event at 5 furlongs in the slop. Her RFF/AFF in that try (after a
stumbling start) gave her a shot at an on the board finish, but considering the stats of
a couple of others was best used "underneath" in exotics wagering.
#3 Then She Laughs - in this short field of 6, five including her were labeled early
speed runners. Following a bumping incident out of the gate, she won her last in a strong
effort with the same RFF/AFF as the filly to her inside.
But with better early zip and having made what I refer to as a T/M move in her last she
could be considered as a top 2 player in this group.
#4 Humor Me Molly - her last could be tossed as it was a 4-wide trip in the Grade 1 Test
Stakes at Saratoga going 7F and breaking from the 11-hole.
Her prior RFF/AFF of 26.2/25.0 showed that she made a nice 7-length gain when closing
from off the pace to win a $54K stakes in the slop at Delaware Park.
This is where the RFF (Raw Final Fraction) can come into play.
The 6 fillies were exiting races with the following 3 previous dirt RFF figures (except
#2 with only her last since her prior 2 were on turf) beginning with last-out races:
1. 26.0, 27.0, 25.0
3. 25.4, 25.2, 24.4
4. 26.0, 26.2, 24.4
5. 27.0, 25.1, 24.2
6. 25.0, 25.2, 24.2
The RFF can help us to match up last-out races in terms of the quality of come home
time, regardless of the class of the race.
The RFF of the race Humor Me Molly won in the slop was 26.2, which did not match up well
with some of the others.
#5 Frenchglen - she was exiting a 6F Grade 3 race at Calder Race Course in Florida with
an RFF of 27.0.
Yes, the reason for that was that the leader or leaders carved out sizzling early splits
of 21.1 and 44.1, but Frenchglen was not able to close any ground late despite that hot
pace, so that plus the RFF/AFF figures of 27.0/28.0 didn't bode well for her chances in
this match up.
Because of her previous 2 races in which she was victorious and in which she earned much
better actual final fractions of 25.1 and 24.2 as well as 100 Beyers,
due to their unwavering focus on speed figures the public sent Frenchglen to the gate
as the 6-5 favorite.
#6 Forty Moves - she was exiting the race with the best RFF and additionally had earned the
best last-out AFF of 24.3. Being a T/M play also, she would have to be considered a top 2
contender in here.
The only knock on her was her outside post as the only non-early speed type runner with
a running style label of P. The main question for her was whether or not she could get up
for the win.
If our primary handicapping approach is based on speed figures our order of contenders
considering the last 3 outings for each would probably be:
5 - 4 - 3 - 2 - 6 - 1
But the top last-out speed figure horse only wins about 28% of the time.
That's why the C.H. data approach to handicapping and making money on the thoroughbreds
can give players the edge and value not available to most the betting public.
The 3 C.H. data contenders in this match up were:
And they happened to finish in that precise order, all at overlay odds with the two
favorites (M/L/actual odds) Frenchglen (8-5/6-5) and Humor Me Molly (5-2/2-1)
finishing 4th and 5th as underlays.
#3 Then She Laughs (4-1/6-1) not only had won 2 of her last 3, including as a good-looking
T/M play in her latest, but as per the C.H. Pace Shape Analysis she was also projected to be
right on or near the lead at the pace call (4F - and she was).
For speed figure aficionados her 10-length romp 3 races back featured a 93 Beyer, which
put her in the same ballpark area of the 2 triple digit Beyers Frenchglen had recorded
in her prior 2 outings.
#6 Forty Moves (6-1/5-1) was solid, not only with the best last-out RFF/AFF figures, but
also having shown top recent form with 2 wins, 1 place and 1 show in her last 4 tries, the
most recent as a T/M play.
#2 Absolute Nectar (5-1/7-1) had identical RFF/AFF stats showing as those of Then She Laughs,
and had run her last in the 5F slop race as a Profile play.
The results show that on this occasion the top 3 last-out internal fraction entries finished
1-2-3, with the best speed from that group winning by 2 1/4 lengths with the place and
show fillies each 2 lengths clear of the 3rd-place and 4th-place finishers.
The payoffs were:
3-6 Ex. $42.60
3-6-2 Tri. $260.40
Making money at this game is all about locating match ups in which edge and
value are presented to us through identification of overlay contenders with chances
for a top 2 finish that are at least as good as the favorite and/or second choice.
For some spot plays I post many racing
days on my private web page for subscribers to this
newsletter, you can bookmark this page:
Or you can click here.
Until Saturday October 2, 2004, I wish you Fair Skies and Fast Tracks.
C.H. Handicapping - The Ultimate Approach!