Welcome to another edition of Horseracing Info Newsletter.

Today's 2 review races involve opposite styles of running, early speed and closing punch.

Obviously, one of the puzzles we have to solve in each match up we look at is which running style if any has the advantage.

Our first example race is the 6th at Aqueduct on 12/16/04 and my C.H. Insights article had the following headline:

"Top Speed Wins for Fun"

The C.H. Data Service developers are moving swiftly toward a free upgrade to the C.H. Viewer as well as a number of other enhancements to the C.H. Data Report, including what will be referred to as a SuperCard containing "best plays" from all race cards uploaded to all Viewers each Saturday and Sunday.

Since I've often discussed my C.H. Insights articles in this forum and with users of C.H. data, we have begun an Insight of the week that is available to anyone with or without the C.H. Viewer.

To check it out, click on the banner (or link depending upon whether you receive this newsletter in html or text format) below, or you can find it in a number of pages on mywebsite at www.free-horseracing-info.com.

And I still strongly recommend that those of you who have not yet taken a look at C.H. Data give a try to our 14-Day Free Look-and-Learn Experience by clicking here.

You can view and/or print the p.p.'s for today's first review race by clicking here.

And the results chart is here.

In Aqueduct’s Race 6 on 12/16/04 the late scratches of #8 Marlotta, and in particular #9 Lila Paige gave an additional advantage to the top-ranked horse in the C.H. pace shape analysis (PSA).

Remaining was a field of 7 three-year-old fillies set to go a mile and 70 yards at the $50K/$40K claiming level.

The pace shape was Ad Early with a running style recap of 3E 2EP 2P (7).

This match up was unique because all 7 entries, including the two P-labeled fillies were included in the PSA, that being because those 2 had shown significant speed and early presence to the furlong marker in their last outings.

The revised PSA was [1] +12 > [6] +1 > [4, 7] +4 > [5] +4 > [2] +3 > [3], with a quickness point spread of 24.

#1 Forgotten Promise was my top win contender off her last-out wire-to-wire score at the $20K claiming level.

I interpreted the hike up the claiming ladder 28 days after the claim to be a sign of confidence.

And there was no questioning how strong her last try looked on paper.

With her 12 quickness point advantage and her last pace call fraction of 1:10.2, she would be the key to all of my wagering.

Since I expected Forgotten Promise to lead from gate to wire, the focus for selecting exotics wagering candidates would be on internal fractions.

Number 1 in that department with a last-out AFF of 26.1 was #4 Let’s Roll Lady, who was exiting the heat run 22 days earlier that included #7 Sunshine Johanne.

They finished first and second respectively and were stepping up from $35K/$25K to this $50K/$40K spot in obvious good form.

All other entries had last-out dirt AFF fractions within 2/5ths of each other except #6 Leedle Dee, who was exiting a speed/stop try at the NW2X allowance level.

When a horse has been in sharp form for a while (as she was with a win and 4 placings in her previous 5 outings) and then runs a complete clunker, I’ll usually pass on it concluding that there was more of a reason for that off try than facing better company.

I wasn’t sold on the chances of #2 Expedition Leader stepping up off the claim from her speed/fade try at 7F despite it looking okay.

When a 12% trainer with a zero for 12 first-off-the-claim success rate purchases a horse from a 20% trainer, it doesn’t work out well very often, especially when we are asking the horse to win or run well at a route in N.Y. after finishing a well-beaten 3rd in both of her tries on the Aqueduct main track with her other 8 career outings being at Delaware Park.

And #3 Bella Bourie was also stepping up off a speed/fade try with $25K/$20K types at 6 1/2 furlongs having been beaten a combined 29 1/2 lengths in her last 3 tries.

That left #5 Judy Soda and she was an interesting-looking filly.

If we put a line through her last performance data, which reflected her first try on grass in a $100K stakes race for N.Y. state-breds, an effort in which she not only showed no sign of her usual early presence, but also one in which she obviously didn’t like the surface, she looked a lot more like a contender for use underneath in exotics wagers.

She had shown good speed in her prior 2 races, and was a good fit with these, having previously won twice at 2-turn routes on the Aqueduct Inner dirt track.

The win wager candidate was #1 Forgotten Promise, who was hammered down to 7-2 from her morning line odds of 6-1.

Logical exotics wagers would include:

Ex.: p/w 1/4-5-7 with a smaller amount part-wheel on 4-5-7/1

Tri.: p/w 1/4-5-7/4-5-7 at a $2 wager cost of $12 and smaller on 4-5-7/1/4-5-7

The payoffs were:

1 $9.30

1-5 Exacta $64.00

1-5-4 Trifecta $322.00

When Sunshine Johanne was unruly during the first half of the race, veering out very wide around the first turn and even wider up the backstretch, effectively eliminating herself from any chance at an on the board finish, Forgotten Promise had an easier time than she may have otherwise and coasted from start to finish with the margin of victory 10 1/2 lengths at the wire.

Judy Soda and Let’s Roll Lady finished well to get the place and show by 1 1/2 and 4 3/4 lengths respectively.


You can view and/or print the p.p.'s for today's second review race by clicking here.

And the results chart is here.

"Big Edge AFF Filly Tops Payoffs"

The field for Race 4 at Hollywood Park on 12/15/04 consisted of 6 fillies and mares, three-years-old & upward going a mile and one-sixteenth for claiming tags of $25K down to $22.5K.

It was an Ad Early pace shape with a running style recap of 3E 1EP 1P 1S (6), a pace shape analysis (PSA) of [4] +4 > [1] +1 > [2] +4 > [3] and a quickness point spread of 9.

At first glance this match up would indicate a strongly perceived advantage for the 4 fillies and mares that were in the PSA, and as things turned out the two most logical of those speed types were involved in the trifecta payoff.

We would initially focus on those entries with E or EP running styles because of not only the pace shape being labeled Ad Early, but also because of the PSA 9 quickness point spread.

As I’ve mentioned a number of times in the past, 8 quickness points is a significant perceived edge, either for 1 horse or for all in the PSA, especially if there are 4 or fewer in that mix.

I say perceived because nothing is set in stone when it comes to horseracing.

If one of the 4 in the PSA had an 8 quickness point advantage herself, perhaps I would have placed less emphasis on the key piece of C.H. data in our reports, but the spread was 9 among all.

The key to wagering for this race was to be found in the internal fractions, when examined in conjunction with the PSA and past performance listings.

First off we could see that a couple of horses, #2 My Honey Bunny and #5 Fatal Caper, were exiting a race with the best RFF by 5/5ths or 1 second (24.3 vs. 25.3), excluding the stale mare #6 Musical Review, who had last competed on turf when finishing a well-beaten 6th 335 days ago.

And it was also immediately apparent that Fatal Caper had a 6/5ths edge in last-out AFF.

Also adding to her contender status were the strong incremental gains in her last 2 internal fractions, especially in her RFF and AFF categories: 26.4/24.3, 25.1/24.0 and her smaller gain in I38 figure of 2/5ths 37.2/37.0.

To top things off she showed the T+ next-out readiness indicator in both of those last 2 outings after a 50-day layoff, as well as F+ in her latest.

Both she and My Honey Bunny had competed in the superior last-out race (as indicated by the RFF) at a higher claiming level of $32K/$28K, finishing 3rd and 5th respectively.

In summation, Fatal Caper looked like the top contender for the win in this match up, despite her having an S (for sustained closer) running style, especially when considering her last couple of tries, the drop in class and the ’04 slate of 14/6-2-2, which included 6 wins in her last 8 outings to go along with a 2nd and a 3rd.

I’ve already made a good case for #2 My Honey Bunny as a filly exiting the best last-out race and one in the PSA.

Top listed in the PSA was #4 Funny Bone, but stepping up in class she was not as likely to run well from close up as the 2nd and 3rd listed PSA entries.

#1 Susie Joe’s was ranked 1 quickness point better than My Honey Bunny and was coming off a good 2nd place finish by a half length at this level, from which she was returning for a trainer with a good record for first try off the claim.

#3 West Coast Gee Gee was the final entry in the PSA, but her p.p.’s indicated that she had stopped badly in her 2 races since a layoff of 14 months.

With so much going for her, #5 Fatal Caper was the most logical for the win bet if one was willing to take 8-5 odds.

Logical exotics wagering in this 6-horse field, basically reduced to 5 with a non-contender stale horse, would include:

Ex.: p/w 5/1-2, with a smaller p/w of 1-2/5

Tri.: p/w 5/1-2/1-2, with a smaller p/w of 1-2/5/1-2

One could have decided to include #4 Funny Bone underneath in the exotics wagering due to her being tops in the PSA and 2nd-best in last-out AFF.

The payoffs were:

5 $5.20

5-2 Exacta $31.60

5-2-1 Trifecta $74.00

Final odds on the first three finishers were 8-5, 5-1 and 2-1, which accounted for the fairly short trifecta payoff, but keying on the strong-looking favorite still accounted for an acceptable profit.

Fatal Caper was 6th and last for a half mile before launching a rally that enabled her to draw clear for a 3 length win at the wire.

My Honey Bunny was in 2nd for most of the way before taking over at the 8th pole and held the place safe by 3 lengths over Susie Joe’s, who finished a half in front of West Coast Gee Gee, with Funny Bone never really getting on track, finishing 5th, a head better than Musical Review.


  • To read some excerpts from the book I've written about my personal handicapping approach to making money on the thoroughbreds called "Calibration Handicapping - The Next Level" please click here.

  • For some spot plays I post many racing days for subscribers to this newsletter, you can bookmark this page:

    http://www.free-horseracing-info.com/hinpsp.html

    Or you can click here.

    Until Saturday February 5, 2005, I wish you Fair Skies and Fast Tracks.

    Jim

    C.H. Handicapping - The Next Level!