Welcome to another edition of Horseracing Info Newsletter.

Today I'll review a couple of different scenarios involving 2 races run on the same card at Mountaineer on 1/29/05.

As I continually stress in my 5-times per week Insights articles uploaded to all C.H. Quick Viewers, a real good starting point for handicapping any race is a review of pace.

I'll demonstrate how a quick scan of the important facets of pace can point us in the right direction for search and discovery of clues or "nuggets", which if located will provide us with the first wager construction prerequisite, edge, the other being value, the presence of that factor to be decided by morning line odds or better yet, near-final odds.


You can view and/or print the p.p.'s for today's first review race by clicking here.

And the results chart is here.

Assembled for Race 1 at Mountaineer on 1/29/05 was a field of 10 set to go a mile and 70 yards at the maiden claiming level of $5,000.

The following pace information was front and center at the top of the C.H. Data Report for this race:

  • Pace Shape Label: Strong Ad Early (strong advantage for runners with early speed)

  • Running Style Recap: 2E 1EP 1P 6S (10)

  • Pace Shape Analysis: [10] +3 > [8] +4 > [1]

  • C.H. Quickness Point Spread: 7

    The pace shape analysis (PSA) is an estimated order of positioning at the pace call for the entries listed, which will most often be horses with running styles of E for early speed and EP for early presser.

    What is the significance of this estimation of positioning at the 4F point of sprints and the 6F point of most routes?

    Simply that in a pace shape label of Ad Early or as in this case Strong Ad Early, with the perceived advantage already given to entries with running styles of E and/or EP, an entry or entries in the PSA qualified in p.p.'s as being in good enough form to go well in the current match up, should be able to continue on well enough from the pace call to the wire for an on the board finish.

    Let's take a closer look at the pace data provided, which with familiarity with this approach will take all of about 2 minutes if that.

  • The pace shape label tells us that there is a perceived edge for the entries listed in the PSA.

  • With only 3 in the PSA, the perceived pace edge is even greater.

  • The presence of 6 S-labeled runners (Sustained closers) provides an even greater perception of advantage to qualified early speed.

    Quickness points can be helpful in determining which entry or entries will have the greater perceived pace edge.

    These points and the resultant point spread have nothing to do with time or beaten lengths.

    They are simply measurements of speed edge from one PSA entry to the other, a significant advantage being 8 points or more for either one entry or all entries over over the remainder of the field.

    To sum up, what this quick review of pace in this particular scenario tells us is that the first thing we should do is check out the 3 horses in the pace shape analysis, because with the pace shape of strong ad early and the presence of 6 sustained closers, they really should have an edge.

    Any time we see a field that includes upwards of 4 S runners, it's a tip off that the PSA entries have a built in advantage, and in this case with 6 such late closers, the pace edge was quite significant.

    As you can see in the p.p.'s, PSA top-ranked #10 Lost Market had run well in his last 2 tries on this track when going 6 furlongs, beaten 3 1/2 in 3rd and 2 1/2 lengths in 5th.

    Having shown ability to get the 2-turn trip, he was a top 2 contender stretching out in this spot at the same maiden claiming level, the T+ C.H. next-out readiness indicator strengthening his contender status, despite having to break from the far outside 10-post.

    #8 Lofty Call had not shown his usual early zip in two outings since a July to November layoff, tracking 4-wide in his return race and showing a little better early presence in his last despite the comment, "crowded."

    One key to the chances of this one was that both of those tries were at double the claiming price of $10K.

    Off the drop to $5K and having shown 2nd and 3rd place finishes at 2-turn routes, he was the top win contender from among the 3 PSA entries.

    #1 Cat Gun had an excuse in his last at this level when he bore in sharply at the break.

    His prior 3 efforts, however, were on the board finishes (2 seconds and 1 third) at for this claiming price, and despite stretching out for the first time could be given a chance at a minor award in this match up.

    The payoffs were:

    8 $8.60

    8-10 Exacta $32.40

    8-10-1 Trifecta $129.80

    As can be seen in the results chart, #8 Lofty Call shadowed #10 Cat Gun for a quarter before pulling away at the half and going on for a 2 1/2 length score.

    #1 Lost Market was 3rd at the pace call behind the other speeds and out-gamed Cat Gun for the place.

    Cat Gun was clear in 3rd by 11 1/2 lengths, which means that our 3 pace shape analysis horses finished 15 1/2 lengths ahead of the remainder of the field.


    You can view and/or print the p.p.'s for today's second review race by clicking here.

    And the results chart is here.

    This was a short field of 6 non-winners of 2 races lifetime going a mile with claiming tags of $15K down to $13K.

    The pertinent pace information for this group was:

  • Pace Shape Label: Ad Early

  • Running Style Recap: 3E 2P 1S (6)

  • Pace Shape Analysis: [2] +1 > [1] +6 > [4]

  • C.H. Quickness Point Spread: 7

    An analysis of our pace coverage for this match up indicates that despite the same number of entries in the PSA, the same quickness point spread of 7, and an Ad Early pace shape which in theory does indeed favor those horses with running styles labeled E and/or EP, the running style recap alerts us to check out not only the PSA entries, but do a comparison of internal fractions.

    With only 1 S runner signed on and an equal number of early runners vs. pressers/closers: 3 and 3, the perceived advantage to the PSA entries is not as great as in our first example.

    A quick look at raw final fractions, actual final fractions, and what I refer to as the I38 shows one horse with a very significant advantage in all 3 .

    The I38 calculation can done only through use of advanced mathematical algorithms, which measure the "invisible" 3/8ths of a mile for every entry in every race from the beginning of the stretch turn to the 8th pole.

    This figure used in conjunction with the actual final fraction, AFF, can be very useful in pointing out horses that are either in form or rounding into form, especially in cases like this one when the edge is so apparent.

    Since there are only 6 horses in this field I'll recap the last-out internal fractions as they are in the C.H. Data Report:

    RFF: [6] 25.0, [4] 26.2, [2] 26.4 [1,3] 27.2 [5] 28.1

    AFF: [6] 24.3, [4] 26.3, [2,3] 27.0, [1] 28.1, [5] 29.1

    I38: [6] 36.4, [2] 38.0, [4] 39.3, [3] 40.0, [5] 40.1, [1] 41.3

    A significant edge in internal fractions is 3/5ths.

    So with #6 Tee Phone Home showing respective advantages of 7/5ths, 10/5ths, and 6/5ths, having won his last by 8 3/4 lengths, he was the solid win contender in here.

    A review of past performance listings revealed that there were 2 horses in this match up that were out of form, which in essence made our contender list immediately narrowed down to 4.

    #4 Castle Hill had returned from a 191 day layoff with a complete non-effort and was a non-contender despite the drop in class.

    #5 Saintly Corp. had put in poor and dull performances in his last 4 tries.

    Besides top contender #6 Tee Phone Home, remaining were:

    #2 Bama Royal, who fit as top-ranked in the PSA as well as having very competitive last-out internal fractions, coming off a 2nd place finish.

    Ditto for #3 Kwame who had finished on the board in his last 7 outings with a slate of 7/1-4-2.

    #1 Sainted Colony was the last potential candidate for our contender list, and he was exiting the same race as Kwame, but finished up the track in 7th, beaten 19 lengths as opposed to the latter beaten only 2 when getting the place.

    Since he was part of the PSA he could have been thought to have a chance at a minor award, most appropriately for use in the show slot if trifecta wagering was opted for.

    The payoffs were:

    6 $7.60

    6-3 Exacta $28.40

    6-3-2 Trifecta $104.60


    Two different races on the same program.

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    Until Saturday March 5, 2005, I wish you Fair Skies and Fast Tracks.

    Jim

    C.H. Handicapping - The Next Level!