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The delivery date for these monthly newsletters is the first Saturday of the month, but
due to the time I have needed to spend on the August 3rd release of our new upgraded
C.H. Data Report, please excuse me for being 3 days late.
This month’s subject is what I call the C.H. Best Play,
and that is quite simply a horse that possesses both early and late superiority
in today's match up.
If we have stats that say a horse should have the lead at the pace call (or close to it)
of its current outing while at the same time having recorded the best last out come
home time, a.k.a. final fraction, then it follows logically that as long as it
is in current good form it is the best win contender we can come up with.
The question is how do we recognize the C.H.Best Play?
C.H. obviously is an abbreviation for Calibration Handicapping, which is
my approach to making money on the thoroughbreds, and to read a summarization of
how I recommend going about that in "Calibration Handicapping - The Next Level", please
Last month I discussed how to evaluate early speed horses.
The C.H.Best Play as I say is simply a horse that
projects to have the lead by the time it reaches the pace call in today’s race and is
expected to close strongly for the win because of having recorded the best last-out
final fraction in its current match up.
While there may not be an overabundance of these best bet plays, there is
not likely to be a higher percentage win bet (or key in exotics wagers) in
Logically if a horse has the lead at the pace call (4F in sprints and 6F point in most
routes) while possessing the best last-out final fraction, it should win the race in
its current match up.
First I’ll review a race that included a C.H. Best Play in the field, and then
I’ll show you just how easy it can be to unearth this high percentage play.
The race in question was the 2nd at Belmont Park on July 21, 2004, a maiden
claimer with 7 fillies and mares 3 years old and upward going a mile and a
You can view and/or print the p.p.'s for this race by clicking
And the results chart is here.
The 5-2 winner as it turns out was making her 11th career start, which
should dispel the notion that a horse with that many (10)
unsuccessful starts without a win if considered a contender should not be
thought to have much of a chance to graduate, but rather should be used
"underneath" in exacta and/or trifecta wagering.
There’s an old adage that occasionally proves to be right, "the horse
doesn’t know he’s not supposed to win."
In this case the winner and C.H. Best Play did not know she had 10 losses
with no wins on her ledger.
This C.H. Best Play cruised to a pretty easy tally.
Here was the field in post position order followed by the usual: running
style label, last-out Beyer speed figure, last-out raw/actual final
fractions, and any C.H. "moves-within-a-race."
1. Santaslittlehelper S 48 26.4/27.1 ---
2. Valkyrie E -- 26.2/--- --- Eased; prior 34 26.2/27.4
3. Krafty Kaper EP 52 25.3/26.3 W.O. play
4. Unpleasantsandy P 36 26.4/28.0 ---
5. Appelative P 45 26.4/28.4 W.O. play
6. Cove Creek E 51 26.4/27.1 ---
7. Gershowitz P 22 26.2/28.4
As you can see, there were 3 horses in this match up with early speed running styles,
2 E runners and 1 labeled EP.
Let's review the p.p.'s for each of the entries in this field.
1. Santaslittlehelper - was an S runner breaking from the rail, and without having shown
any signs of next-out readiness in her only 2 career races she was not a contender.
2. Valkyrie - with a running style label of E it could be expected that she may be gunned from
her 2-slot to try to secure a lead on her early speed counterparts. About the only
point of significance for her was the fact that she was dropping from two career outings
at the maiden special weight level.
But the gap of 6 months between races along with her stopping and being eased in the
stretch in her last outing 16 days earlier did not bode well for her chances of clearing
this field and lasting for a part.
3. Krafty Kaper - the C.H. Best Play was exiting a smooth speed/fade effort from
only 6 days earlier (an indication of confidence on the part of her trainer to run her back
so soon) when running as a Wide Out play.
She not only (as per our new C.H. Data Report) was expected to have the lead at the
pace call, but she displayed both the best last out raw final fraction and actual final
fraction as well.
As an in-form C.H. Best Play, Krafty Kaper was the key to wager construction.
4. Unpleasantsandy - there were no clues in her 2 lifetime races, one sprint and one
route, that would lead us to believe she could land a top 3 finish against the group
she was facing here.
5. Appelative - she had only one career start, and it was a speed/fade type try with
the Equibase comment of "4-wide", which made her one of the "moves-within-a-race" that
I describe in my book called a Wide Out play.
As such and considering the form of many of her opponents in this match up, she could
be given a shot to be an on the board contender here.
6. Cove Creek - as the 2nd ranked speed-to-the-pace call horse who was going first
time lasix and without blinkers for the first time in her 4-race career, she could
certainly have been considered as an in the money contender in this spot, and the public
agreed by making her the 7-5 favorite.
7. Gershowitz - in her only 2 starts she raced greenly and 3-wide and then was bumped
at the start 40 days before this try in a speed/fade type effort when equipped with
With the addition of lasix for her return and the blinkers experiment canned by
removing them she could have been considered for a minor part.
The only way I would use 4 horses in a 7-horse field is if there was a key horse; one
I would use in the win wager as well as in the win slot in most of my exotic wagers,
if there was enough probable value.
I generally play it safe by using such a key horse in the place slot also, but in
My contender order for this race was:
3. Krafty Caper
6. Cove Creek
And my wagers were:
Win on #3
Ex.: part-wheel 3/5-6-7 with a smaller part-wheel of 5-6-7/3
Tri.: part-wheel 3/5-6-7/5-6-7 with a smaller part-wheel of 5-6-7/3/5-6-7
The payoffs were:
3-5 Exacta $36.00
3-5-6 Trifecta $80.00
Now, as promised I'll tell you a real simple way to uncover C.H.Best Plays.
First of all, why not take a look at our new C.H.Data Report in a web page I created
called C.H. Insights that includes today's review race.
After that review are 9 prior insights using data from our previous version
of C.H. Data Report.
You can visit this page and then click on the "back" arrow or tab in your browser to return
to this newsletter: click here.
And/or you may simply enroll in our new C.H. Data Service,
which now includes many new features and benefits, some of which are:
- "Winning with C.H." documentation that discusses how
to make money using the new C.H. Data Report
- A free C.H. Quick Viewer in
which users can download and view or print "live" race cards from currently up to
9 different race tracks...or
- A 14-Day C.H. Data Free Experience in which users can
download and view or print "past" days' cards (or current days' 30 minutes after racing had
been completed for the track in question).
Past racing cards are always free to anyone, including those users with purchased
"card counts" in their C.H. Quick Viewer.
This in essence is a "free-look-home-study-before-purchase" program the purpose for
which is to learn as you go to make certain you understand just how to use the
C.H. Data Reports, the C.H.
Insights, and the past performances of your choice in conjunction with one another
to give yourself the best chance possible to make money on the thoroughbreds.
- The new Tip Of the Day that appears
each day you open your viewer.
- New User-Friendly Business Model
Monthly subscriptions have been phased out completely.
Simply purchase non-expiring "live" race cards (minimum of 15) and use them when you want.
- New comprehensive coverage of a very important piece of the handicapping puzzle called
Including: running styles for each entry, running style recap, pace shape label, and the
icing on the cake, a pace shape analysis that projects the horse or horses that will be
in front at the pace call.
This is one of the 2 key components of the C.H. Best Play
- The C.H. internal fraction calculations, including
the AFF, which is the 2nd part of the C.H. Best Play as
discussed in this newsletter.
- The C.H. Pick a Track Pack, a unique innovation that
allows users to choose to have available race cards that generate C.H. Data
Reports for the track or tracks of their own personal preference.
As of this writing tracks currently being uploaded to all C.H.
Quick Viewers, for both paid and non-paid users are:
"Default" tracks of Saratoga, Del Mar, Ellis Park and Calder.
"Pick a Track Pack" tracks of Arlington Park, Bay Meadows Fair, Monmouth, River Downs and
Woodbine, a list that is growing.
Users can choose to download any of these 9 race cards at their discretion.
- And much more!
- To register for a 14-Day C.H. Data Free Experience
please click here.
- To enroll and purchase some "live" race cards for current days' racing please click here.
- To go to the main C.H. Data Service description page,
please click here.
I really think you will quickly see the potential for success in our new reports.
Why not give them a try?
For some spot plays I post many racing
days on my private web page for subscribers to this
newsletter, you can bookmark this page:
Or you can click here.
Until Saturday September 4, 2004, I wish you Fair Skies and Fast Tracks.
C.H. Handicapping - The Ultimate Approach!